Insight Into The Tide Of China'S Economy And Finance

Zongliang / Wen

2020 is an extraordinary year. With the spread of new pneumonia in the world, the global economy fell into the worst depression since the great crisis of 1929-1933. In 2020, China will take the lead in controlling the epidemic situation, return to work and production, restore normal production and living order, rapidly recover economy and achieve strong growth, and walk out of a V-shaped curve that attracts worldwide attention. In 2020, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 101.6 trillion yuan, breaking through the 100 trillion yuan mark for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, becoming the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth. China's economy shows strong resilience.

However, we should also see that there are still some new variables in the new epidemic situation. In response to the impact of the epidemic, major economies have launched unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies, and debt levels have broken through historical highs. The potential risks of the world economy should not be underestimated. The foundation of China's economic recovery is not firm, consumption and private investment have not yet been fully recovered, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is still facing some difficulties, and the debt pressure of some local governments is increasing.

2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan and the historical intersection period of the two centenary goals. It is particularly important to maintain the stable and healthy economic development. We must be well prepared to deal with all kinds of emergencies, cultivate new opportunities in the crisis, open a new situation in the changing situation, and speed up the formation of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other. This means that we must form a continuous, stable and sustainable macro policy framework, pay more attention to deepening reform and innovation, increase the driving force of development, promote the economy to turn to the track of innovation driven and endogenous growth, and continue to adhere to the opening-up policy to promote sustainable economic development.

"If you review the past and learn the new, you can be a teacher." Taking history as a mirror has always been an inexhaustible driving force for the continuous evolution, development and improvement of macroeconomic policies, and an important guarantee for us to have insight into the future. At the same time, Dr. Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, published his book "reviewing the old and learning the new: insight into the economic and financial tide". It is a book reviewing and discussing the key and hot issues in China's economic and financial field since China's reform and opening up, especially since the new century. It provides an important research perspective and perspective for us to systematically review and reflect on the past economic policies, financial innovation and opening, and financial support for the development and transformation of the real economy.

Dr. Wen has been deeply engaged in the financial industry for more than 20 years. He is not only an experienced person in China's economic and financial industry, but also a participant in the practice of China's economic and financial policies. Therefore, this book is not only the author's independent thinking on China's economy and financial industry, but also allows us to constantly reproduce those important historical events in our reading, so as to find more clues for the stability and high-quality development of economy and finance in the new era And context. Several important features of this book deserve attention.

Provide "key" for understanding the trend of macroeconomic policy in 2021

In the chapter of "macro economy and policy", Dr. Wen bin talked about the views put forward in articles such as "macroeconomic policy should be static brake" and "coordinated development of fiscal and monetary policy to stabilize growth". At present, macro policy also emphasizes the policy framework of matching with the actual needs of maintaining stable economic operation, and the stable monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate The article "China's monetary policy choice under the background of monetary easing policy" provides a useful reference for our policy choice under the new modern monetary theory framework. From the relevant analysis of Dr. Wen bin, we can know that the rise against the trend of economic growth is closely related to the supporting role of China's macro policy in advance prevention, timely regulation and control, and stabilizing the overall situation. There will be no "sharp turn" in the macro policy in 2021.

Financial support for the real economy has always been the top priority of policy

According to the relevant statistics of the central bank, the target of 1.5 trillion yuan of interest from the financial system to the real economy in 2020 has been achieved, and the effect of precision drip irrigation is good, which plays an important role in supporting the business vitality and survival and development of market entities. Among them, the reform of interest rate marketization and the reform of commercial banks are indispensable institutional arrangements to reduce the financing cost of enterprises, improve the transmission efficiency of policies, and solve the financing difficulties and high financing costs of enterprises. As a senior expert who has worked in the Bank of China and Minsheng Bank for many years, Dr. Wen bin has spent a lot of time in this book to study and analyze such issues as interest rate marketization reform and transformation of commercial banks, and has paid special attention to the hot topics such as private banks, science and technology finance, which are of special concern to the market.

A picture of the history, current situation and Prospect of the opening up of the financial industry

Finance is the blood of the real economy. At present, China's economy is turning to the stage of high-quality development, which requires a comprehensive and open modern financial system as a support. Through the overall utilization of "two markets and two resources", we should introduce high-quality financial market entities, innovate financial products and services, increase effective financial supply, and meet the differentiated and personalized financial needs of different entities in the real economy. Since 2020, although economic activities have been affected by the new epidemic, the pace of financial opening has not stopped. The intensive implementation of financial opening measures has attracted foreign financial institutions and foreign investors to enter the Chinese market. Dr. Wen bin not only analyzed some major issues and their impacts of the current financial opening up, but also shared some interesting historical views on China's banking industry in coping with financial opening and competition with foreign banks since China's accession to the WTO. These insights provide us with valuable experience in understanding and looking forward to the direction of financial opening in the new era.

Explore the stable and cautious promotion of RMB internationalization and the future promotion space

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the reform of the international monetary system has been put on the agenda, and the abuse of US dollar has been criticized by all countries around the world. How to improve and improve the international monetary system, especially to provide a stable anchor for the global economic and financial markets, has become a major international issue. With a series of reform of the exchange rate system, RMB internationalization has made some achievements since 2009 and has been recognized by the international market. Under the background of extremely loose monetary policy in the world, especially in the developed countries in Europe and the United States, and even to operate the printing machine for fiscal purchase orders, the RMB asset price has shown a relatively stable feature, and the willingness of international investors to increase the holding of RMB assets has increased. The emergence of the characteristics of RMB safe haven currency is a good test of the effectiveness of exchange rate reform and RMB internationalization. As pointed out by Dr. Wen bin in reviewing the old and learning the new: insight into the economic and financial tide, there is still a lot of room for improvement in RMB internationalization in the future. However, it is still an arduous but far-reaching task to continue to implement exchange rate reform and provide RMB with the attributes and conditions needed as an international currency.

To remind financial innovation and to prevent risks effectively

To prevent the occurrence of systemic financial risks is the eternal theme of financial work. In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, the world's trade growth and economic growth have slowed down, and the phenomenon of low return on capital in the real economy has appeared worldwide. In addition, the long-term implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in developed countries in Europe and the United States has led to the flooding of global liquidity and the large scale of domestic money stock, real estate and some state-owned enterprises lacking hard constraints Local government has become an important flow of funds, which brings potential risks to the future economic development. This requires us to attach great importance to the existence of financial systemic risks, to take precautions, to effectively promote financial reform and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. This is also a major area that Dr. Wen bin paid more attention to. He systematically discussed the dialectical relationship between financial innovation and financial risk, and specifically analyzed the latest innovation trends and potential risk problems of major asset markets such as stock market, foreign market, bond market and non-performing asset industry, which provided a possible direction for financial innovation and risk prevention and disposal.

After all kinds of shocks at home and abroad in 2020, China's economy has accumulated experience in effectively coping with crisis challenges, and has improved its ability to cultivate opportunities and start a new situation. China's economy is standing at a new historical starting point, based on the new development stage, implementing the new development concept and building a new development pattern. Dr. Wen Bin's "review the old and learn the new: insight into the economic and financial tide" provides a reference and guidance for us to think about the new economic and financial issues in the new era, helps us to clarify our thinking and help us better predict the future!

(editor Dong Mingjie)