High Production And Sales Bring Summer Cool Breeze. Can Polyester Staple Touch Bottom Rebound?

Recently, the market of polyester staple fiber "suddenly appears like spring breeze all night". Production and sales have risen sharply, and the market price also has a tendency to stop.

The cost side is rising up in oil prices, and PTA processing fees have shrunk to around 1000 yuan, and PTA is showing signs of stopping. However, the market of polyester staple fiber is increasing at a low price, but the pressure of factory losses is still constant, considering that the terminal has not improved significantly. Can this short and short market be able to hit the bottom smoothly when it is running warmer?

Raw material ends unspeakable

On the PTA side, the current load is still high, and this week's Fu Hua plan is restarted, the market supply is relatively loose, the cash base is weakening, the downstream cash flow has been repaired, but the trend of factory production reduction has not yet been reversed. The loom load continues to decline, and the stock of grey fabric and polyester is still accumulating. At present, the supply and demand level is still weak, but when the cost is stable and the processing fee is significantly reduced, the short-term downside space of the disk is expected to converge.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the market supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been gradually relieved recently. The factory is in the out of stock stage, and the overall start-up load remains relatively low. With the increase of ethylene glycol prices, the supply volume of domestic and foreign manufacturers is expected to increase again, and the external information is optimistic. Ethylene glycol is expected to remain strong in the short term.

Market production and sales have improved.

After nearly 1 months of decline, downstream customers have been unable to sit on the ground, and have started to carry out the bottom up operation. The low price goods source of the market has obviously improved, and the stock of short staple factory has dropped sharply.

As shown below, the stock of polyester staple fiber is less than 1 weeks. As a result of low prices and severe losses, some factories sold on 30 days were reluctant to sell, which also led to a slight rebound in some ultra low price goods. However, behind the hot sales, the fundamentals of the market have not improved significantly. Under the pressure of larger losses, the market is in a state of crisis.

Downstream faces greater pressure

6 from the middle of the month to the end of July, with the strong stretching of raw material ends, yarn enterprises also took the opportunity to rise. But the good news is not long. With the return of fundamentals, market weakness and the polyester industry's low production and marketing situation, the short staple market is diving back.

Yarn enterprises are facing the risk of cost collapse and the worsening demand pressure situation in the off-season. They constantly keep in touch with the previous increase. Up to now, the average price of T32S is 12000, which has been reduced by 1700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of July. In the short term, the downstream will face greater pressure.

To sum up, although the production and sales of PET staple fiber has been slowing down, the market has gradually eased down, but the cost side is not good enough, and the downstream is still facing greater tonnage pressure.