Analysis Of Current Cotton Supply And Demand Situation: Supply And Consumption Are Loose.

Since 2019, the successful focus of Zheng cotton bottoming has been moving upward, and the disk has been climbing slowly in the good news of the market, but it has never been able to get out of the vision of most people.

一直以来，市场多头认为国内棉花供需缺口明显，国内外多个机构的棉花供需平衡表中均预计中国2018/19年度棉花供需缺口接近300万吨左右（我国棉花产需缺口基本上每年在200万吨左右），棉花上涨指日可待；而压制多方的观点认为国内本年度棉花需求形势一般，在2018/19年度棉花产量基本确定约580万吨，结转库存250多万吨有余，89.4万吨的1％关税配额固定按期发放，80万吨滑准税配额按需如期发放，国储库轮出消息随未释放，但仍有少量轮出传言，各大机构对于2018/19年度国内美棉花消费的预期都保持在800万吨以上，那么该年度国内棉花供应为当年产量+89.4万吨1％关税配额+滑准税配额+结转库存，供应量约1000万吨，棉花实际供应量与消费量处在一个相对较为宽松的状态，但对比前几年去库存时期的棉花供需情况，市场给出了略显紧张的信号，促成2019年棉花重心逐步抬

The situation of ascension.

Business inventories are running high and consumption is slow.

At the end of 2018, business inventories reached 4 million 959 thousand and 100 tons, the highest level since 2010. On the one hand, business inventories increased year by year from the beginning of 2015. On the one hand, the annual output of cotton increased. On the other hand, it was the progress of the consumption of commercial stocks in recent years. But for the 2018 year, the new increase was due to the decline of domestic consumption under the influence of Sino US trade friction. Suppose that the Sino US trade reached an agreement at the end of April and the beginning of May, and the export of textile products improved. The cotton consumption in China was restored to the original level before 2018. The commercial inventory and industrial inventory in 2019 2019 amounted to about 5 million tons, and the imported cotton was not included. The domestic cotton stocks can still meet the new cotton market after 2019/20.

Global macroeconomic data are not good enough. There are many unknown factors hidden.

On the basis of qualitative supply, the future risks of the cotton market are all reflected in demand. The downward trend of the global economy is bound to pose a psychological shadow on cotton demand. At the same time, the market of the big economies such as the United States and Europe has been sluggish, and the Sino US trade disputes have not been able to cover up many unknown factors at the end of cotton demand.

Back to the downstream textile line situation, the pure cotton yarn Market in April did not usher in the peak season as scheduled, the overall market instead turned pale, the cotton yarn inventory level than the same period in the same period did not rise, according to the China cotton textile information network, in April, the downstream weaving factory order performance is not good, large textile factory orders for only a month, followed by a single obvious fatigue, and some small and medium-sized weaving mills have begun to produce conventional products tired inventory, downstream demand is difficult to improve now, consumption weakness will continue to continue to contain cotton trend.