Textile And Clothing Exports: Better Export And Seasonal Diversification Trend

Export growth rebounded beyond expectations, from the economic trend of improvement, seasonality and export diversification strategy.

The risks in Europe and the United States still need to be determined at the end of the year, but the recovery of emerging markets such as ASEAN and Brazil is clearer, and the trend of export diversification is obvious. With the coming of the peak season of export, the export risk has dropped significantly in the four quarter, and the growth rate in the quarter is expected to rise to around 10%.

The rebound in imports was less than expected, reflecting the weakness of domestic demand.

It is still necessary to increase the policy of steady growth.

Exports have recently recovered, and exports increased by 9.9% in September, up from our expected 7.2% and market expectations of 5.3%.

The improvement of exports is supported by economic improvement to a certain extent, but the trend of economic differentiation and growth is still uncertain.

The strong recovery of the US led to a rebound in exports, an increase of 5.5% in the month and an acceleration of 2.5 points, while the euro area is still in decline and export growth is hard to predict, and exports are still up 10.7% in the same month.

And the debt handling problem of the two countries is still unclear. After excluding seasonal factors, the trend of export growth in Europe and the United States is downwards. The risk is not yet solved, but the rate of convergence is reduced and the risk is eased.

The growth of ASEAN, Brazil and Russia increased by 25.5%, 13.7% and 22.35 respectively.

The OECD leading indicators and the PMI index show that Brazil and ASEAN have improved significantly.

Export growth in emerging economies will make up for the weakness of the developed economies.

With the successful implementation of export diversification, the overall risk of export is eased.

China's dependence on exports from Europe, America, Japan and ASEAN and emerging economies is decreasing.

(1) the proportion of Europe, America and Japan decreased. In the 10-12 years, the proportion of exports from the three largest economies in the US, Japan and Europe dropped by 2 points in September, accounting for only 41% in the year. (2) the exports of ASEAN + BRICs rose to 15.9%, and 1 points increased in three years; (3) the export contribution of other markets outside the two large markets increased to two, and the number of exports increased by 7%.

The signs of economic improvement and export diversification have reduced the risk of China's export growth.

After excluding seasonal factors, the trend cycle value (TC) rose steadily, while the import trade of processing trade increased by 8.6%, indicating a marked improvement in exports. We expect growth in the four quarter to rise to 10%.

Imports rose 2.4%, lower than expected, indicating weakness in domestic demand.

(1) the growth rate of imports of iron ore, copper, raw materials and natural rubber has all dropped down; (2) general trade imports have dropped by 5.3%, and the trend value (TC) has been increased by 0.2% after excluding seasonal trend.

Both indicate a decline in domestic demand, reflecting the weakening of investment drive.

External demand is improving, but there is still uncertainty. Especially the 13 quarter of the 1 quarter of the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff problem may bring new risks.

Therefore, the short-term improvement of external demand is insufficient to become the reason for the slow growth policy.

The weakness of imports reflects the decline in domestic demand. We believe that the fourth quarter still needs to increase investment and stimulate consumption to support domestic demand policies, so as to stabilize growth expectations.