High Level Directive Macro-Control Unchanged &Nbsp; CPI August Or Difficult To Meet Inflection Point

The market is crying out for it.

It is predicted that CPI will reach the top in June, and the result will be high.

It is predicted that CPI will reach the top in July, and the result will be a new high.

On the eve of the August macro data release, a number of mainstream institutions including Shen Wan, Zhong Jin, Guotai Junan and so on expect that the CPI will fall in August, and the increase will not exceed 6%.

Is it true this time?

Even if CPI really fell back on schedule in August, Societe Generale, chief economist of Industrial Bank of China (601166, stock market) (601166) still thought he was right.

His previous judgement was that CPI would not be able to reach the top until September or October.

His current judgement is that if August falls, it is likely to rebound in September, and inflation will continue at a high level.

Reporters recently visited agricultural products (000061) wholesale

At this time, Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, published a signed article in "seeking truth" magazine, and the signal was clear.

"The prime minister's article shows the attitude of the central government, and is also aimed at correcting the misunderstanding of the market."

Guo Tianyong, director of the research center of Bank of China (601988, Guba) (601988), Central University of Finance and Economics, said that in recent years, the international situation has been greatly volatile, and various views on the economic situation have emerged.

"Inflection point" is still early

In 2007, the inflation rate dropped to 6.9% after CPI, but then it hit a 8.5% high point.

Will the current round turn 6.5% in July?

Or will the high impact be maintained?

"The high level judgement on the current Chinese economy is that" the problem of growth is not big, and inflation is not small. "

In September 1st, Premier Wen told Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities.

The latest PMI index released on that day echoed the claim that PMI was 50.9% in August, up 0.2 percentage points from July, the first rise since April.

According to the bank's international judgement, the economic callback is in the controllable range, and there is no risk of a hard landing.

Analysis of detailed data shows that the main reason for this PMI recovery is the rising stock of raw materials.

It is generally believed that the rising stock of raw materials indicates that "going stock" has entered the second half stage, which is a sign of the expansion of manufacturing activities in the future.

But PMI data does not always bring good news.

5 months ago.

Hongyuan securities (000562, stock bar) (000562) senior researcher He Yifeng analysis, the purchase price continues to rise, indicating that inflation pressure is still larger.

Reporters in Beijing's food market field interview, eggs sold to 5.2 yuan / Jin, more outlandish vegetables, spinach, rape sold to 4 yuan / Jin, coriander and shallot even 15 yuan / Jin.

Guo Tianyong judged that the absolute price is still high, and the price of food in August is still rising. In August, even if CPI falls, it is hard to judge the trend.

Lu political commissar said that with the decline of the tail factor, the statistics released by the Statistics Bureau of food high-frequency price data narrowed, the CPI will fall to 6% up and down in August is possible; however, judging from the new price increase factor, the short term fall of food prices in July has unsustainable factors, and the pressure of price rise is still there. Top down will be a long process. At the same time, we must guard against the widening gap between supply and demand caused by the resurgent demand in the four quarter.

Relaxation is expected to fail.

It is obvious that the logic of CPI's turning point is obvious, that is, there is a strong expectation for the relaxation of regulatory policies.

The central high ranking position made this expectation temporarily empty.

Lu commissar reminded reporters that in fact, a similar statement has already appeared on different occasions.

As early as July 22nd, at the forum of non party personages convened by the CPC Central Committee, general secretary Hu Jintao put forward 6 opinions on continuing to do well in economic work, including insisting on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control.

At that time, Wen Jiabao also said: "persisting in handling the relationship between the three stable and fast economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing the inflation expectations, paying more attention to stabilizing the general price level, and taking measures to curb the excessive upward trend of prices."

The similar statement was published again. Guo Tianyong thought it was a recent change in the economic situation at home and abroad. There were different views on the judgment of the economic situation and macroeconomic regulation from all walks of life.

The biggest change is undoubtedly from the US debt crisis.

Just as the market pays close attention to whether the "boots of increasing interest rates" will fall again, the US debt reduction crisis has led to a sharp reduction in interest rate hikes, because the tail factor will drop sharply in August. As early as the CPI high in July, CPI peaked has become the mainstream judgment.

Even the officials of the macro-control department interviewed at that time said: "how to adjust the monetary policy needs to be judged. This is rather difficult. We should stop and see how to do it."

Nomura Securities once sought evidence from a Chinese official press release that the macro policy might turn.

They found that in the August 9th press release of the State Council meeting, "effectiveness" in "forward-looking, targeted and effective" has been replaced by "flexibility".

In their subsequent report, they wrote: "we believe this implies that the tightening policy has begun to shift, and China is preparing for the recent global financial turmoil policy response plan."

"The prime minister made a statement at this time, in order to let the market correct this understanding deviation."

Gao Shanwen said.

Lu commissar said that the reason for repeated tightening policy easing, the stock market looking for positive factors looking forward to the bull market psychology can not be ignored.

In fact, as early as April, the call for monetary policy easing has risen.

At that time, many institutions believed that the two quarter CPI reached the top. Due to the tight policy in the early stage, the difficulties in the survival of SMEs, the fall in PMI and the decline in the growth of industrial value added, the tight monetary policy may be relaxed.

This premier not only reiterated that stabilizing prices is still the primary task of macroeconomic regulation, but has not shown much concern about slowing economic growth.

According to Gao Shan, the relaxation of monetary policy is unrealistic. "But it should not continue to tighten. This reduces the uncertainty of future macroeconomic policies and gives everyone a chance to breathe."

This is in line with the judgement of many market participants.

Lu commissar believes that the year should not continue to raise interest rates, taking into account the overall liquidity in the second half of the market is tight, the statutory reserve requirement rate is expected to end, but in order to ensure a stable M2 at the end of the season, it is expected that "window guidance" may be more used, although the "two rate" no longer be raised, but the overall policy orientation will not relax, that is, no increase in interest rates, no mention of the right, do not relax.