Cotton Spot Prices Have Begun To Decline Slightly Recently.

　　 This year, the domestic Goods in stock Prices began to slide slightly in recent years after reaching a 10 year high in July 9th. Comparing the trend of domestic spot movements in the past 8 years, this year is obviously "different": up to now, although the operation curve is similar to that of 2005 and 2009, the center of gravity has moved up to more than 3000 yuan / ton. The latter part of the year (entering July) is still close to the middle region, but it is still high above.

Recently, the downward operation of spot should be a rational callback, because supply and demand factors have changed quietly, demand side: 1, textile production has entered a three month traditional off-season, and cotton consumption has been reduced normally; 2, compared with previous years, the inventory of textile enterprises has significantly improved, and the demand for purchasing is even more insufficient; 3, the cotton price has declined, and the enterprises needing to recharge the library have further pressed the purchase time; 4, some overstocking enterprises have even started selling cotton, and industrial stocks have been transformed into commercial stocks again. Supply side: 1, cotton enterprises worry about price declines and shipments increase; 2, the state may throw stocks at any time, 600 thousand tons become potential supply; 3, new cotton will be on the market, and the supply is expected to increase.

The year of 2009/10 is destined to be an extraordinary year. The coming 2010/11 may also have an unusual starting point: from historical data, the lint price of lint in the past 7 years is 12700-14300 yuan / ton, and the difference is only 1600 yuan. This year, the market expects that the price will be around 16000 yuan per ton.

But at what price? Connection There are still some variables in the market outlook.

1. Weather conditions. Cotton production has been continuously affected by adverse weather this year: sowing at low temperature and sowing for 10-20 days. Cotton seedling Weak; seedling wide Xinjiang wide range of cooling and precipitation, serious damage, some of the harvest areas despite replanting, but the growth is postponed, and other areas also continue to spread disaster; in June, the weather resumed, cotton quickly repaired, growing better, but in July, the Yangtze River Basin has been heavy rain for more than half a month, the affected areas continue to expand. Recently, parts of Shandong were also hit by heavy rain, cotton lodging, bud and boll off. On the one hand, the unfavorable climate will directly lead to the reduction of cotton production. On the one hand, the growth schedule will continue to postpone, which will not only affect the time to market, but also shorten the sitting period and further affect the output.

2, cotton farmers' psychology and market game. (1) the sale price of wheat and corn will be significantly increased this year. The purchase price of wheat and corn in Dezhou, Shandong has reached 1.02 yuan / kg, and corn is also more than 9 gross, and the price of cotton and other crops is high. Cotton farmers have a high expectation of cotton. (2) in 2009, the purchase price was low before and after high, while the situation in 08 years was also very similar. Many of the earlier cotton farmers were feeling the loss and postponed the psychological enhancement of the sale. (3) with the increase of grain income and the increase of migrant workers' income, the proportion of cotton income in the total income of farmers in many areas continued to decline, and farmers no longer relied on selling cotton, and the enthusiasm for sales decreased. Because of several reasons, cotton growers are expecting a higher price for the new year.

Even so, the past few years, in the new cotton purchase link game, cotton farmers are still in a weak position. On the one hand, because of the decentralization of cotton farmers, it is difficult to form a price alliance; on the one hand, market information is still relatively limited, and unwilling to take excessive risks. So although most of the cotton farmers' psychological expectations are around 4 yuan / Jin this year, the possibility of price down is still very high when processing factories are concerned about market risks and postpone acquisitions.

3, textile situation. In the past few years before the financial crisis, the textile industry continued to appear in the "off-season" situation. This year, the obvious characteristics of the off-season are also affected by some factors: (1) as cotton and yarn prices continue to rise, downstream enterprises, whether they are intermediaries, have accumulated a certain amount of raw materials inventory, and the sales market is slightly changed, and the enterprises immediately stop purchasing. In addition, the price of raw materials has declined, and some enterprises have even started selling stocks. (2) due to the difficult global economic situation in the second half of the year, buyers are difficult to grasp the market, the order volume has decreased, and the appreciation of the renminbi has affected the enterprises.

In September, the textile and garment industry will usher in the peak season of sales. But on the one hand, the global and domestic economic recovery situation is more complex, and the economic growth rate is facing a decline. Some countries have even resumed a new round of stimulus measures to make textile consumption reappear in the first half of the year with high growth rate. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated since July, but the appreciation of the market is still high. The long-term appreciation trend of RMB is also hard to change, and the profit of textile enterprises may be reduced.

At the same time, the financing situation of textile enterprises in the second half of the year is also hard to predict. Bank loans may be tightened moderately, and the entry speed of social capital may also slow down. Once the growth rate of each link decreases, the impact of textile industry labor and raw material cost will be more obvious, and the difficulty of business management will increase.